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Fairus Khairuddin has quit his Penanti state seat, prompting for calls for a by-election. Will one take place? Nobody knows for sure, but while waiting for Barisan Nasional's decision, The Edge Malaysia highlights the key statistics of the Penanti state seat, as well as compiling analysts' opinions on likely outcome of the situation. In our companion piece, we featured politicians stating their stand on the by-election. The Edge Malaysia speaks to political analysts who, like the politicians they watch, are also firmly wedged in three camps. Go for it! | Don't contest - BN's going to lose anyway | Don't bother, there are more important issues | | Professor Mohd Agus Yussof, political analyst at UKM If BN were to contest for democracy’s sake, why not? It is fulfilling the requirements of a democracy. And every political party has the right to glorify democracy. Besides, anybody who thinks that they can contribute to the people and deliver results should be able to contest. If you’re talking about the millions of ringgit it will cost as a deterrent, it’s really the cost of money politics, isn’t it? Never say that a by-election that fulfils the requirement of democracy is unnecessary. | Wong Chin Huat, political analyst at Monash University Sunway BN should not run in Penanti if they want to save face, because they are going to lose terribly. I disagree with others who say that it will be a tough fight. BN will have no chance of winning at all. It’s Anwar Ibrahim territory because it’s under his constituency, Permatang Pauh. | Rita Sim, deputy chair of INSAP No, I don’t think that BN should contest if there is a by-election in Penanti. The reason being it’s fine if a by-election is called legitimately, such as in the case where there is a death. But to force a by-election, that’s just politically motivated. It’s as if PR is keeping up the momentum of anti-BN sentiments. There needs to be a focus on the economy right now, instead of just politicking, plus this is a drain on our country’s resources. Look at Thailand. Its economy is suffering right now because of the constant political turmoil. We should get on with governing the country and stop all this politicking. People are tired of it. | | Ben Suffian, Merdeka Centre programme director Why not? Firstly, it’s an important election, because it’s held a month after Najib has taken office and articulated his policies. People would have formed their impressions of him by then. Secondly, Umno has come out of their own elections with a stronger, more cohesive line-up. This by-election would test that line-up to see if they can attract voters in their current state. Lastly, it’s important to keep up the morale of the troops. If the new leader is reluctant to contest it will send out the signal that the coalition may not win this time. Still, it’s part of the political process. Even if you may lose you still need to try. | Khoo Kay Peng, political analyst From a strategic viewpoint, BN will want to avoid it. Why would they want to go in, look like clowns, get trashed, and have Mahathir lead the charge? Najib will look bad because it will look like an old man is fighting his battles. The coalition’s impression will be negative all the way. That said, BN cannot avoid contesting either, because it will be an historical first time that BN has shied away from a battle, and will have to endure the taunts if it does so. They're caught in a dilemma. | Khaw Veon Szu, executive director of SEDAR I think it is not a good move for BN to contest because of two things: a by-election is unnecessary and the BN should not play into Anwar’s game. This whole scenario in Penanti is man-made: if you analyse carefully, all this is just to pick the Deputy Chief Minister. Anwar wants his choice, Dr Mansor Othman, and not the current ADUN, to be DCM. That is common knowledge. In contrast, Lim Guan Eng’s choice is Abdul Malik Abdul Kassim. So there is a clash. We must send out the message to PR, to Anwar, that a by-election is not the way to solve your disputes. I don’t think DAP and Pas are interested in having a by-election because of this either, despite the fact that they are confident of winning. Why pour manpower, money and other resources in another by-election? It can run into the millions. What we need to focus on right now is the economy. It’s in pretty bad shape. | | | Dr Tunku Mohar Mohamad Mokhtar, Assistant Professor at Department of Political Science, IIUM I agree with Najib that it’s best for BN not to contest, for three simple reasons. Firstly, there is no reason why Fairus should quit. His excuse of pursuing a post-graduate education does not make sense. BN should not fall for such games made by PR. Secondly, in terms of cost, if BN contests, there are the campaign and party machinery to pay for, and promises made to voters cost money as well.
Thirdly, BN simply cannot win because it is under Anwar’s stronghold of Permatang Pauh, and previous election trends show that PR is gaining popularity there. | | | Ong Kian Ming, political analyst They shouldn't. Given that the BN will most likely lose this by-election, which would make the score 5-1 in favour of the Opposition, it may make more sense for the BN to 'deny' another moral victory to the Opposition. If BN shied away from only one by-election, instead of a series of by-elections, then the cowardice factor would far outweigh the moral victory factor. However, it’s not the case right now. By not contesting, BN would also take away the media's focus on the by-election, thereby depriving the Opposition of media coverage. As it stands, the PR has a lot alternative media coverage, and a by-election would accentuate the issues. Here, PR stands to benefit more as they can put more pressure on Najib, who then will be distracted from having to respond to these attacks. | |
Written by Lam Jian Wyn Source: http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/highlilghts/4673-bigger-fishes-odds-and-principles.html
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